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Long-term forecasts

 

JUNE 18

According to the long-term forecast of May 10, 2018, breaking of fast was expected during June 12 - 22. Breaking of fast on point beam Sabetta has happened on the water area of Gulf of Ob on June 16.  Final breaking of fast, including coastal areas of the port of Sabetta, will happen in the next few days, namely till June 22, 2018. 

Chief of the sector of CIGMI of AARI  N. Korelskaya

JUNE 18

B YU L L E T E N   OF
"June specification of long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2018"


The forecast bulletin contains specification of ice forecasts about the expected ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas in the first half of navigation of 2018 (June-August). 
Specification concern indicators of the main ice forecast which has been developed in March. Specifications have been made taking into account the begun spring and summer hydrometeorological processes.
For assessment of intensity of the expected development of ice conditions, the forecast is compared to mean annual values (the norm calculated from 1970 for 2010).
Kara Sea
The area of the Novozemelsky ice massif is expected in June about norm, in July-August is 10-15% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): 
the third decade of June – 75%, norm of 75%; the third decade of July – 19%, norm of 34%; the first decade of August – 8%, norm of 18%.
In the first half of navigation in a southwest part of the Kara Sea the easy background of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected.
The area of the Severozemelsky ice massif in July-August is expected 15-20% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July – 53%, norm of 68%; August – 19%, norm of 39%.
In the first half of navigation in a northeast part of the Kara Sea the easy background of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected.
Breaking of solder in a coastal part of Vilkitsky Strait is expected for 8 days before mean annual term – on July 22, norm on July 30.
Laptev Sea
The area of the Taimyr ice massif in July-August is expected 5-10% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July – 55%, norm of 71%; August – 25%, norm of 43%.
In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the average background of ice conditions with a tendency to easy (fig. 2) is expected.
The area of the Yansky ice massif in July-August is expected 10-17% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July – 60%, norm of 77%; August – 6%, norm of 16%.
In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the average background of ice conditions with a tendency to easy (fig. 2) is expected.
On the most important points breaking of solder is expected: 
the bay Tiksi – on July 3, norm on July 14, the cape Kigilyakh (the western ways to Dmitry Laptev Strait) – on July 7, norm on July 17, Sannikov Strait – on July 10, norm on July 21.
East Siberian Sea
The area of the Novosibirsk ice massif in July-August is expected 15-20% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July – 66%, norm of 81%, August – 13%, norm of 33%. 
In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the easy background of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected.
The area of the Aion ice massif in July-August is expected 17-30% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July – 70%, norm of 87%, August – 36%, norm of 66%. 
In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the easy background of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected.
Breaking of solder in a throat of Chaun Bay (on the site Aion-Valkarkay) is expected for 10 days before average long-term value – on June 24, norm on July 2.

Chukchi Sea
The area of the Vrangelevsky ice massif in July-August is expected 12-20% less than average long-term values: July – 16% norm of 36%; August – 0%, norm of 12% (fig. 1).
Breaking of solder on the coastal site the cape Yakan – the cape Vankarem is expected for 10 days of earlier average long-term terms – on June 30, norm on July 10.
In the first half of navigation in a southwest part of the sea the easy background of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected.

Thus, in the first half of navigation in the Arctic seas the following prevailing background of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected:
- easy – in Barents, Karsky, Laptev, East Siberian and in Chukchi the seas.

Forecasts are developed in laboratory of long-term ice forecasts of federal state budgetary Institution "by AANII.

June 18, 2018.   
Director of AANII A.S. Makarov

April 06

March 21

Date the page was created: 2013-03-15
Last modified: 2018-06-18